Is Trump The President Who Cried “Tariff”? Here’s What The US’s Potential 100% Tariff On China Means For UK Businesses

In recent days, former President Trump has threatened to impose a 100 % tariff on Chinese imports – the most recent in a series of many extreme tariffs introduced during his second term, but this one in particular seems to be a fairly dramatic escalation in the ongoing trade conflict between the two nations.

Whether it actually happens or not is, of course, another story, as Trump is also known for making threats. However, the truth is that these days, often the mere announcement sends ripples across global markets and adds fresh uncertainty for UK businesses that trade with or rely on supply chains tied to China.

This would be just the latest in a series of tariff moves from the Trump administration aiming to reset trade balances and leverage political pressure. But, now, UK firms must ask, what does this threat really mean? That is, what does it mean on paper, in the streets and with regards to political strategy? And, how should they begin preparing, even before the tariff ink dries?

 

Tariff Redux: The Latest in Trump’s Protectionist Playbook

 

This new 100 % tariff isn’t emerging in a vacuum. Earlier in 2025, Trump already initiated sweeping reciprocal tariffs and raised levies on Chinese goods under the guise, it seemed, of national security and deficit reduction.

Chinese retaliatory responses followed, and markets have grown volatile as a result. The escalation to a full doubling of duties would represent one of the sharpest turns yet in the U.S.-China trade standoff. As such, experts are split on whether such a dramatic move is politically viable or whether it serves more as a bargaining chip than a binding commitment.

But as frustrating this move is (especially if the Turmp administration never really even plans on implementing it), the threat alone exerts pressure. Importers, retailers and manufacturers may accelerate shipments, reprice goods or reroute supply chains in anticipation. That kind of anticipatory behaviour can distort markets, disadvantage smaller players and give rise to chaos in cross-border trade flows.

So, is Trump the President who cried “tariff”? Or, is this a real threat? And, either way, what does the threat and the potential implementation mean for UK businesses?

 

 

What the Threat Means for the U.S. and American Business

 

Of course, as has become very clear, especially in recent years, tariffs imposed in the US tend to have ripple effects all over the rest of the world, with businesses in places like the UK, Europe and even further afield suffering or being affected indirectly in one way or another.

For UK businesses, the immediate impact of a 100 % tariff between the US and China may seem indirect, but the truth is, the ripple effects could be profound. The UK sits in the middle of global supply chains that feed both American and Asian markets, and any disruption to trade between the world’s two largest economies inevitably spills over.

Many British companies rely on Chinese manufacturing for components, packaging and consumer goods that ultimately find their way into the US retal market. If those goods are suddenly subject to heavy tariffs, UK exporters and logistics firms could face delays, cost surges and contract renegotiations. Retailers that import finished goods from China may also feel pressure to increase prices or seek alternative suppliers – a costly and time-consuming process.

Beyond supply chains, there’s a broader risk to investor confidence and currency stability. A renewed trade war between Washington and Beijing could dampen global growth, tighten capital flows and lead to market volatility that affects British exports, especially in sectors such as automotive, electronics and consumer tech.

Even if the tariff never materialises, the threat alone forces UK businesses to plan for uncertainty – something few can afford after years of Brexit-related adjustments, inflation and shifting trade policies.

 

Our Experts

 

• Jonathan Steenberg: Lead Economist for the UK, Coface
• Sarah Fleming: Spokesperson for NerdWallet UK
• Matthew Ware: CEO of Mark 3 International
• Kit Conklin: Senior Vice President, Risk and Compliance at Exiger

 

Jonathan Steenberg, Lead Economist for the UK, Coface

 

 

“It is not impossible that the U.S. administration will proceed with the tariffs, particularly given that the current arrangement is merely a truce, set to expire on 10 November. In theory, this would see tariffs revert to the +100% rate. However, both parties are likely to favour reaching an agreement that avoids the imposition of export controls and maintains tariffs at their present levels. As such, a further extension – following some political posturing – appears to be the most probable outcome.

“At present, the situation introduces considerable uncertainty around supply chains and the ability of some firms to fulfil deliveries. Companies may be affected either directly by export controls or indirectly – for instance, if a supplier requires critical minerals to produce goods for them. An escalation in tariffs between the US and China would place additional strain on supply chains. Initially, this could trigger a surge in demand due to frontloading, likely pushing up shipping rates. Over time, it may also prompt Chinese firms to pivot towards alternative markets such as the UK, intensifying competition in an already challenging environment.

“The impact on startups will vary significantly depending on the region and sector. For those based in the US and China, the effects are likely to be particularly pronounced. US startups may face higher costs when importing goods or components, while Chinese startups could encounter greater difficulty in exporting. Export controls would also complicate production across several industries – from solar panels to electronics – by restricting access to essential inputs. For startups in other sectors, the impact could go either way. Costs may ease if exports are redirected, but could rise if key suppliers are affected. A broader trade war would damage both economies, slowing global growth – a development that would inevitably affect all countries. Startups, in particular, would be vulnerable, as access to credit would likely tighten, disproportionately affecting startups and SMEs.”

 

Sarah Fleming, Spokesperson for NerdWallet UK 

 

 

Do we think [Trump] will go ahead with the 100% tariff on China?

“History tells us this is a textbook maximum-pressure negotiation tactic – announce the biggest, most shocking number possible to gain leverage. Economically, a full 100% additional tariff on all Chinese imports would effectively halt trade, which is hard to sustain. Businesses should be preparing for a significant, costly disruption, even if the final tariff figure is a little lower or is targeted to specific strategic goods. Uncertainty is the new risk factor.

What would it mean for the UK?

“The UK won’t be insulated from the fallout. The cost shock will hit global supply chains, meaning UK consumers will face higher prices for electronics, furniture, and any product using Chinese components, adding fresh inflationary pressure. Whilst worrying, the bigger problem is trade diversion. If Chinese goods can’t be sold in the US, they get flooded into other markets like the UK and Europe. That massive inflow of cheap imports can devastate UK manufacturing, as we’ve already seen in sectors like steel. As tensions flare, this adds further volatility to UK markets and heightens uncertainty for investors and businesses alike.

What would it mean globally for startups?

“Startups are the most fragile links. Those producing goods in the UK or EU will inevitably face increased competition from Chinese manufactured products diverted from the US – negatively impacting margins across global economic lines. As a result, this will force some early-stage UK companies into a costly and time-consuming pivot to move manufacturing to places like India or Vietnam – meaning all growth and new product plans are shelved. The co-threat of export controls on critical software also means tech startups globally will likely see higher prices and potential scarcity for advanced AI chips and components. It’s a major stopper on innovation.”

Sarah’s tips for UK businesses navigating the ongoing uncertainty of Trump’s tariffs

“”Build resilience into your plans, not roadblocks

“Instead of putting your startup ambitions on hold, focus on embedding resilience into your business model.

“If you’re just starting out as a business owner or have growth goals for 2026, don’t put your growth plans on hold if a small business loan could still give you and your business the financial confidence to grow.

“Adaptability is what will see you through uncertain trading conditions.”

“Strengthen your funding pitch with scenario planning

“If you’re planning to approach investors, scenario planning can add credibility to your business proposal. Demonstrating that you’ve mapped how your venture could stay viable under different geopolitical and economic outcomes reassures backers of your preparedness.

“If financial modelling isn’t your strength, regional business support hubs can help founders refine projections and strengthen funding applications.”

Protecting your tech business from broader disruption

“Trade tensions and tariff uncertainty aren’t the only risks businesses face right now. From extreme weather to supply chain disruption, events beyond your control can have a serious impact on your bottom line. Business interruption insurance can act as a vital safety net if you’re forced to pause trading due to a fire, flood or other unforeseen event.

“In times of global instability, being proactive about risk management can make the difference between temporary disruption and long-term recovery.”

 

Matthew Ware, CEO of Mark 3 International

 

 

Will Trump Go Ahead with the 100% Tariffs On China?

“Yes, but it is likely to change at some point – this is because it’s a defensive measure after the Chinese government imposed controls on rare earth exports. Strategically that is in response to the controls imposed by the US on high powered chips.

“Both superpowers are flexing their respective muscles on key parts of the supply chain that they control – it’s unlikely to be an easy solution in the short term given the strategic value of both items being controlled on both sides – and the simmering prospect of confrontation over Taiwan and other interests over the next decade or two. The geopolitics are messy. Expect movement though.

What Would a 100% Tariff On China Mean for the UK?

“The UK relies on China (as does most of the world) for its rare earths – so it will challenge some sectors significantly. The increase in Chinese tariffs we’ve seen has led to greater exports from China into Europe and other parts of the world at lower prices. It may have a short-term benefit for some prices in the UK, and it may also increase the attractiveness of UK and European products in the US market – which is currently adapting to the post de minimis world.

What Would the Tariff Mean for the Rest of the World?

“It’s just a continuation of the development over this year of complexity and difficulty in global trade. The last two or three decades had been about increasing simplicity in cross border trade – and that is now being reversed – so operating across borders with physical goods is going to be more complex, more costly and challenging. It creates opportunity for new entrants and dynamic players who can be nimble and respond to the reality – and risks for some. We live in interesting times. “

 

Kit Conklin, Senior Vice President, Risk and Compliance at Exiger

 

 

“For UK businesses, especially those in advanced manufacturing, defense, and tech, new U.S. tariffs could create both disruption and opportunity. Global supply chains are deeply interconnected — if the cost of sourcing from China rises, UK firms could see ripple effects in pricing and availability of components. But there’s also a potential upside: U.S. and UK companies may find new reasons to collaborate on nearshoring, innovation, and trusted-partner supply networks.

“Tariffs could actually open the door for startups. If tariffs make Chinese goods less competitive, there’s an opportunity for startups in the UK to fill that gap with innovative technologies, products, and materials. Startups that can move quickly to localize production or form new partnerships will be well positioned to capture market share — especially as demand grows for trusted, transparent, and diversified supply chains. It’s a moment that could strengthen U.S.–UK collaboration across the tech, defense, and manufacturing sectors.”