Artificial Intelligence Will Account For 6% Of Job Losses

Forrester says AI and automation will change work in the United States at a measured pace through 2030. The research group forecasts that 6% of jobs will be automated across the country during that period. That equals about 10.4 million roles, according to Forrester figures published in January 2026.

The forecast comes from The Forrester AI Job Impact Forecast, US, 2025–2030. It says large scale job replacement across the economy is unlikely because productivity growth would need to rise far faster than it has in recent decades. Human labour continues to anchor most workplaces.

The same report explains that AI will likely reshape far more jobs than it removes. Forrester expects AI to influence 20% of jobs over the next 5 years. That influence often means tools that support staff, change daily tasks or speed up routine work rather than removing positions outright. Forrester said companies that treat AI as a support tool rather than a substitute stand to gain more from their spending.

Are AI Layoffs Being Misread?

The general public often relates the recent job losses directly to AI. The United States recorded more than one million layoffs during 2025, and high profile technology leaders spoke openly about using AI tools inside their businesses. J.P. Gownder, a vice president and principal analyst at Forrester, said that link often misses the real reason.

Gownder said many job cuts described as AI driven actually stem from financial pressure. Executives announce reductions and attach an AI label even though no tested systems exist to take over the work. Forrester calls this practice AI washing, where future technology plans act as a cover for cost cutting.

The report says this confusion carries risks. Over automating roles based on hype can lead to expensive reversals, reputational damage and weaker employee experience. Forrester’s 2026 future of work predictions say more than half of layoffs linked to AI will later be undone once firms see the operational strain caused by early replacement of people.

History backs up that caution and this can be seen in 2016, where AI scientist Geoffrey Hinton said training radiologists should stop because machines would soon outperform them. Radiology roles did not disappear. The Mayo Clinic said its radiology workforce grew 55% after that claim.

Which Jobs Feel The Pressure And What Happens From Here?

Forrester says AI does not touch all jobs equally. Junior roles, software developers and customer service representatives face the greatest strain as companies test new tools that handle coding assistance or customer queries. Other professions feel lighter effects or none at all.

The forecast also shows a change inside AI itself. Generative AI now accounts for 50% of jobs lost to automation, up from 29% in Forrester’s 2023 outlook. That change reflects the arrival of agent style systems that carry out specific tasks with greater accuracy, according to the report.

Even so, Forrester says people stay at the heart of work through the next five years. Workflows and tasks may change, but a workflow does not equal a job. Productivity gains depend on staff who understand how to use these tools well.

“We may not be heading for an imminent AI job apocalypse, but how organisations handle AI today will define more than just their future success,” said J. P. Gownder, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. “To navigate the complexity around the human and AI era, leaders must prioritise governance and invest in their people — treating AI not as a replacement for human talent but as a tool to enhance it.”