What Will Rachel Reeves Announce In The 2026 Spring Statement? Experts Share Their Predictions

Rachel Reeves will deliver her Spring Statement today against a backdrop of easing inflation, fragile growth and mounting political pressure to prove that her fiscal strategy is indeed working. After last November’s more substantial Budget speech, expectations for this event are low, and deliberately so.

The Treasury has repeatedly indicated that the Spring Statement is intended to be a technical update rather than a second major fiscal announcement, with the Government committed to one significant fiscal event per year.

Recent data has given the Chancellor some room for cautious optimism. Inflation has fallen noticeably from its 2022 peak and it’s stabilised at around 3%, while January brought stronger-than-expected tax receipts and a surprise public sector surplus. Retail sales have also shown signs of resilience.

And that combination is likely to shape the tone of today’s statement – stability over spectacle and reassurance over reform. Several industry leaders expect Reeves to lean heavily into that message.

Laurence Booth of CMC Markets argues that the Chancellor will prioritise predictability over policy shifts, with markets likely to welcome a “non-event” that reduces volatility. Serge Santos describes the Statement as a “fiscal checkpoint rather than a policy event”, with the real focus on updated Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts and what they signal about growth and debt. Others, including Ed Rimmer of Time Finance, suggest that a quieter fiscal environment may itself be the point, giving SMEs the confidence to invest without fearing surprise tax changes.

 

Stability Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Comfort

 

As Neil Kadagathur of Creditspring notes, while falling inflation and lower energy costs may ease some pressure, many households remain financially exposed after years of rising living costs. Owen Dixon of Best Student Halls highlights growing strain within the student finance system, with frozen repayment thresholds and elevated youth unemployment tightening early-career disposable incomes.

Charles Hipps of Oleeo points to youth unemployment at 14% among 18-24-year-olds, the highest level in over a decade outside the pandemic, just weeks before minimum wage increases take effect in April. These pressures complicate any claim that the recovery is firmly entrenched.

 

 

Stability First, Reform Later?

 

The clearest signal heading into today is that significant tax reform is unlikely. Reeves has previously emphasised fiscal discipline and the need to restore credibility to the public finances, a stance shaped by recent years of market turbulence and rising borrowing costs. By reserving major announcements for the Autumn Budget, the Government appears intent on avoiding further disruption.

That approach may reassure investors, but it risks frustrating parts of the business community. Some founders and investors argue that rising employer costs and tighter reliefs are already weighing on growth. While there’s not much expectation of immediate reversals to policies such as last year’s changes to Employers’ National Insurance, there will be close scrutiny of any language hinting at future adjustments. The Autumn Budget is increasingly seen as the moment when relief (if it comes) will arrive.

 

Signals on Growth, Rates and Technology

 

If there’s substance today, it may lie in the forecasts. Roy Shaby of Tradestars suggests that updated projections could strengthen expectations of a Bank of England rate cut later this month, especially if growth remains soft. Lower rates would offer more immediate stimulus than fiscal tweaks, especially for mortgage holders and businesses reliant on credit. But, global geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility remain live risks that could complicate the inflation outlook considerably, and these are incredibly unpredictable variables.

There’s also quiet anticipation around innovation policy. Investors like Jamie Roberts of YFM Equity Partners and technology leaders including Lee Nolan of Hitachi Vantara argue that even subtle reaffirmations of support for AI, R&D incentives and digital infrastructure would send important signals. The UK remains Europe’s largest tech market, and the Government has repeatedly framed technology and AI as central to productivity gains and public service reform. So, whether Reeves uses today’s platform to reinforce that narrative may indicate how growth ambitions will be balanced with fiscal caution later in the year.

Ultimately, today’s Spring Statement is unlikely to transform the economic landscape. Instead, it’ll most likely serve as a barometer of sorts – of the Government’s confidence in its fiscal trajectory, of the headroom available before the Autumn Budget and of how it intends to navigate the tension between restraint and growth in a year that remains economically and politically delicate.

Let’s see what the experts have to say.

 

Our Experts:

 

• Neil Kadagathur: Co-Founder and CEO of Creditspring
• Laurence Booth: Global Head of Markets, CMC Markets
• Clare Marsh: Founder of Her Business Counts
• Vipul Sheth: MD of Advancetrack
• Stuart Weekes: Head of Innovation Taxes at Crowe
• Jamie Roberts: Managing Partner at YFM Equity Partners
• Thomas Eyre: CEO and Co-Founder of Loqbox
• Roy Shaby: CEO of Tradestars
• Ed Rimmer: Chief Executive Officer at Time Finance
• Michael Vallas: Global Technical Principal at Goldilock Secure
• Owen Dixon: Founder of Best Student Halls
• Lee Nolan: General Manager UK&I at Hitachi Vantara
• Richard Potter: CEO and Co-Founder of Peak
• Dale Peters: Senior Research Director at TechMarketView
• Chris Eastwood: CEO and Co-Founder of Penfold
• Serge Santos: The Business Physicist
• Charles Hipps: Founder and CEO of Oleeo
• Joe David: Founder and CEO of Nephos Group

 

Neil Kadagathur, Co-Founder and CEO of Creditspring

 

 

“The Spring Statement is rightly expected to focus on stability. Falling inflation and lower energy bills will offer some relief, and increases to Universal Credit, alongside the removal of the two-child limit, are meaningful steps for lower income families. For many households, predictable income and steady costs matter far more than headline economic signals.

“But while the direction of travel is improving, the reality for millions remains tight. Living costs are still structurally higher than they were a few years ago, and many families have little financial buffer left after a prolonged period of pressure. A single unexpected expense can still tip a household from managing into struggling.

“That’s why safe, affordable access to credit needs to be part of the resilience conversation. For households without savings, short-term borrowing is often a necessity, not a choice. The question is whether the system consistently delivers transparent, manageable products, or whether complexity and inconsistent standards leave people exposed to harm.”

 

Laurence Booth, Global Head of Markets, CMC Markets

 

 

“In contrast to last November’s budget, many economists predict that the Spring Statement will be a low-key affair, with the Chancellor likely to prioritise economic stability, rather than significant policy changes.

“Buoyed by higher-than-expected tax receipts in January and steadily falling inflation, the Chancellor will likely choose to reaffirm her plan is working and make the statement something of a non-event.

“The lack of radical changes will be received positively by businesses and investors, who value stability and predictability, and will reduce the likelihood of trading volatility. Improved policy certainty may boost investor confidence and support capital flows into the UK, thereby strengthening the growth outlook heading into the Autumn Budget.

“With questions on the horizon about key funding pledges, however, such as defence and education, there remain doubts about how the Treasury will raise these funds and where investment will come from.”

 

Clare Marsh, Founder of Her Business Counts

 

 

“I expect the Spring Statement from Rachel Reeves to prioritise stability over major reform. With the Government committed to one significant fiscal event each year, sweeping tax changes are unlikely.

“However if the Spring Statement from Rachel Reeves is framed as ‘stability’, many small business owners will hear ‘stand still while costs rise’.

“Women-led micro-businesses, particularly in tech and digital services, are already absorbing higher employer costs, tighter dividend taxation and expanding compliance demands like Making Tax Digital. Another cautious statement without practical relief risks reinforcing the message that small limited companies and sole traders are an easy revenue source.

“The Government talks about backing innovation and entrepreneurship, but confidence comes from predictable tax policy and genuine simplification, not speeches. Stability is welcome, but silence on small business strain won’t go unnoticed.”

 

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Vipul Sheth, MD of Advancetrack

 

 

“Thousands of businesses are feeling the strain of the Government’s economic decisions, and the Spring Statement presents a real opportunity for the administration to reset its approach and provide meaningful support to business owners – yet still the Government buries its head in the sand.

“Businesses are closing, investment is slowing, and more entrepreneurs are questioning whether the UK remains the right place to grow – and it’s for this reason I urge the Government to consider reversing last year’s changes to Employers’ National Insurance Contributions, or risk seeing more British firms shut up shop.

“As someone who built a business from the ground up, I understand the risks entrepreneurs take and the resilience required to succeed. But there comes a point where hard work and ambition are not enough to offset policy decisions that make growth harder. If we genuinely want a thriving economy, we should be strengthening incentives for those who take that risk, including expanding Business Asset Disposal Relief so founders are properly rewarded for building and scaling successful companies. The message must be that UK plc is open for business, and success will be supported, not penalised.”

 

Stuart Weekes, Head of Innovation Taxes at Crowe

 

 

“We hope to see continued government support through the nurturing of apprenticeships across the UK, and the removal of barriers to innovation.

“Businesses are finding themselves too financially uncertain to invest in R&D. In the manufacturing sector, for example, the fact that 82% of businesses are funding themselves through internal reserves tells its own story.”

 

Jamie Roberts, Managing Partner at YFM Equity Partners

 

 

“Any measures that strengthen the UK’s ambition to lead in AI, frontier technologies and software in general, will be important signals in tomorrow’s Spring Statement. The UK is already Europe’s largest digital and tech market, with a growing cohort of soonicorns and unicorns emerging from clusters in AI, quantum, advanced connectivity, cyber security, software, engineering biology, and semiconductors.

“These capabilities should form the backbone of a modern, innovation‑led economic strategy for the country. What matters now is a stable, long‑term policy environment that gives high‑growth tech firms the confidence to scale here in the UK. Consistency around incentives for innovation, support for commercialisation, and clear rules for international collaboration will be essential if the UK is to remain a destination of choice for AI and deep‑tech development.

“As an investor, backing the next generation of transformative technologies, we want to see a Statement that reinforces the UK’s strengths, accelerates adoption, and ensures that founders and innovators have the platform they need to thrive.”

 

Thomas Eyre, CEO and Co-Founder of Loqbox

 

 

“Whispers around the Spring Statement suggest that things may be getting a little easier for savers and everyday households. Against the backdrop of lower inflation and a public finance surplus, there are finally signs of relief after a long period of economic turbulence. For many people, that could mean a little more breathing space in their monthly budget than they’ve been used to in recent months – thanks in part to the household energy price cap coming down and the Bank of England’s expectation of lower interest rates.

“That said, with the statement already being labelled as a ‘fiscal non-event’ by the IfG, it’s important to remember that signs of economic rebound will not magically fix the cost-of-living crisis, or rebuild falling consumer confidence overnight. Households can’t rely solely on policy change to rescue their finances. This is why it’s important for people to take advantage of these favourable conditions to start saving and building credit as the economic outlook looks to be slowly improving.

“To really take control of personal finances, people need access to the right tools and information to boost their long‑term financial wellbeing. With some alleviation of pressure on day‑to‑day budgets, this is a prime opportunity for individuals to look at strengthening their financial resilience – tackling any problem debt, and setting up manageable, regular payments or savings to build a stronger credit history.”

 

Roy Shaby, CEO of Tradestars

 

 

“I think we’re likely to see clearer signals supporting a Bank of England rate cut later this month, rather than anything particularly groundbreaking from Reeves.

“What I will have my eye on whoever is the economic signals embedded in the updated forecasts. If they point to softer growth or tighter fiscal conditions, that strengthens the case for easing. In my view, that is where any meaningful stimulus is likely to come from and I expect tomorrow’s numbers to reinforce that direction.

“That said, global geopolitical developments could quickly take centre stage. If global tensions drive oil prices higher and inflation risks resurface, that may shift the timing of any decision and temper market expectations.”

 

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Ed Rimmer, Chief Executive Officer at Time Finance

 

 

“As we approach the upcoming Spring Forecast, the usual pre-event ritual of leaks within the press of speculative tax changes appear to have been replaced by an unfamiliar, if not, welcome silence. For years the economy has been subject to a fiscal tug of war, with constant fine tuning and adapting of policies to meet businesses needs. And while many of these policies have positively impacted businesses, what has been grossly underestimated is the inevitable uncertainty that large fiscal events can bring.

“As an independent lender to UK SMEs, what we tend to see around these calendar dates is a stagnation in our client’s growth plans, as many await upcoming announcements before making significant investments or financial decisions. When deciding whether to green light a new contract to supply a supermarket with your product line, or even expand your workforce, the last thing you need is a surprise tax rise – right now, a quieter fiscal environment is exactly what businesses need in order to grow with confidence.

“The Chancellor’s apparent commitment to descale the Spring Forecast – reverting it back to a technical update rather than a secondary Budget – is a wise move. We are already seeing the benefits of what consistency can achieve. With inflation stabilising just last week to 3%, the UK economy is showing a resilience that shouldn’t be underestimated. The greatest gift the Chancellor can give to British businesses right now isn’t a new relief, it’s the confidence of stability.

“We’ve seen first hand that when the fiscal noise moves on, the SMEs we support are better positioned to move from a reactive place to a proactive one. With inflation now holding at 3%, the focus shifts from managing rising costs to unlocking the value already sitting within a business. With a steadier landscape, the Government can now allow business owners the headspace to explore flexible funding solutions, such as Asset-Based Lending (ABL). Whether it is leveraging plant and machinery or utilising Invoice Finance to smooth out cashflow, multi-product ABL solutions provide the agility needed to turn long-term strategies into immediate action and with a quieter Spring event, businesses can do just that.”

 

Michael Vallas, Global Technical Principal at Goldilock Secure

 

 

“Falling inflation, rising retail sales, and the government’s surplus are a welcome sign of economic resilience. But recent cyberattacks, including those targeting major retailers like M&S and manufacturers such as JLR, are a clear example of how quickly a significant shock can feed into the wider economy.

“Looking ahead to the statement, the government needs to continue to emphasise how the forthcoming Cybersecurity & Resilience Bill offers material guidance and enforceable resilience standards across organisations, industries and critical infrastructure. This will reinforce how withstanding, containing, and recovering from cyberattacks protects the wider economy from effects that can quickly erode the government’s recent progress and put its growth ambitions at risk.”

 

Owen Dixon, Founder of Best Student Halls

 

 

“With the Spring Statement expected to focus mainly on fiscal updates rather than major policy changes, I would not anticipate sweeping reform of the student loan system tomorrow.

“However, student finance is becoming harder to ignore. Outstanding balances continue to rise, annual interest added has exceeded repayments in recent years, and projected write-offs remain significant.

“The labour market backdrop adds further pressure. Youth unemployment remains elevated, with close to one million young people not in education, employment or training. At the same time, frozen repayment thresholds mean graduates will repay more in real terms as earnings rise.

“Taken together, these factors are tightening early-career disposable income. For many graduates, that directly affects housing decisions, mobility and financial stability.

“Even if detailed reform is not announced, I would expect at least a signal of direction around how the government intends to address the longer-term sustainability of the system.”

 

Lee Nolan, General Manager UK&I at Hitachi Vantara

 

 

“Technology leaders should see this Spring Budget as the opening chapter in 2026’s fiscal story rather than a moment for major policy shifts. The real signal will be the tone it sets around confidence, investment stability and a long-term commitment to digital growth ahead of the more impactful Autumn Budget.

“Even subtle language on R&D incentives, digital infrastructure and regulatory clarity would matter. Data governance and sovereignty are now central to how organisations plan AI and cloud investments. Recent research shows that 85% of UK businesses have specific data sovereignty requirements influencing where and how AI workloads are deployed – significantly higher than the global average.

“That tells us something important. UK businesses are eager to innovate, but they want to do so within clear, trusted frameworks. If the Spring Statement acknowledges the role of secure digital infrastructure, skills and targeted incentives in enabling that balance, it will send a strong signal that technology is not just a sector, but foundational to future economic growth.”

 

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Richard Potter, CEO and Co-Founder of Peak

 

 

“This year has been defined by a heightened sense of uncertainty. Across major global economies, we have witnessed political shifts, market volatility, and broader economic instability converging at the same time. Together, these forces have created a challenging and often unpredictable operating environment. While leaders are naturally inclined to project confidence and focus on opportunity, recent developments have made sustained optimism more difficult to maintain.

“Uncertainty has, of course, always been part of the business landscape. What feels different now is its persistence. It affects investment appetite, hiring plans, supply chains, and long-term growth strategies.

“As we look ahead to the Spring Budget, there are nonetheless grounds for cautious optimism. Recent retail sales figures have shown encouraging improvement, suggesting that consumer confidence may be stabilising. If this trend continues, rising demand could provide a much-needed boost to businesses across multiple sectors. At the same time, given the rapid pace of change in artificial intelligence, a clear commitment to invest in AI domestically would signal confidence, support innovation, and help position the UK competitively for the future.”

 

Dale Peters, Senior Research Director at TechMarketView

 

 

“Tomorrow’s Spring Forecast is expected to be an update on the economy and public finances rather than a major fiscal event. The Chancellor’s key message is likely to centre on stability, though the updated Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts will still offer important indicators of the pressures facing public services and the likely impact on industry.

“From a technology standpoint, the focus is expected to remain on the role of AI and digital innovation in improving public service delivery and boosting productivity.”

 

Chris Eastwood, CEO and Co-Founder of Penfold

 

 

“Even without headline-grabbing reforms, pensioners and savers deserve clarity. Tax traps, saving incentives and adequacy gaps aren’t abstract policy debates – they affect real people’s confidence about their future. The direction signalled in this Budget will shape trust in the system for years to come.”

“We expect this Budget to focus primarily on economic stability rather than major pension reform. Fiscal discipline will likely take priority. That said, continued progress on dashboards and the Pension Schemes Bill, from consolidating small pots to improving retirement pathways, will be crucial. These developments directly affect how we support our customers and help them plan with confidence for the long term.”

 

Serge Santos, The Business Physicist

 

 

“Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement tomorrow will be a deliberately restrained affair: a fiscal checkpoint rather than a policy event. With the autumn Budget reserved for major announcements, this interim update lets the government present a narrative of improved public finances without committing to new spending or tax decisions.

“The headlines will focus on that surprise January surplus and stronger-than-expected tax receipts, a testament to previous consolidation measures. The OBR’s updated forecasts matter more than any ministerial flourishes; markets will watch closely for any revision to growth expectations, currently anaemic, and debt projections.

“The political calculation is clear: defend the earlier tax rises as essential for stability while signalling that relief for business, particularly, awaits the autumn. It’s a gambit to buy credibility on fiscal discipline without the immediate pain of fresh announcements.

“But weak growth and rising unemployment are uncomfortable backdrops. Reeves risks looking like a Chancellor presiding over economic headwinds while offering no near-term solutions. Fiscal caution is prudent; it’s far less comfortable to explain.”

 

Charles Hipps, Founder and CEO of Oleeo

 

 

“With youth unemployment at 14% among 18-24-year-olds – the highest level in over a decade outside the pandemic – the Spring Statement arrives at a critical moment for the labour market, and it is difficult to see how this will not feature prominently in the Chancellor’s remarks.”

“Unemployment more broadly has been edging upwards since 2022. What we are seeing is caution rather than crisis. Employers are not freezing entirely – they are becoming more selective. Hiring cycles are slower, scrutiny on costs is tighter, and there is greater emphasis on measurable productivity.

“The timing is significant. On April 6, the minimum wage for 18-20-year-olds will rise by 8.5% to £10.85 per hour, while the National Living Wage for those aged 21 and over increases to £12.71. When financial adjustments land simultaneously, entry-level hiring is often the first area to slow.

“If the Spring Statement is to move the dial, it needs to widen the frame: provide stability and clarity for employers, support sustainable hiring capacity, and modernise early-career pathways.”

 

Joe David, Founder and CEO of Nephos Group 

 

 

“Tomorrow’s Spring Statement will reveal a government caught between fiscal discipline and growth ambition. With Reeves under pressure on borrowing, expect tightened spending commitments dressed up as “investment efficiency.”

Major tax rate changes are unlikely, with the overall direction suggesting fewer generous reliefs and increased scrutiny rather than overt tax rises. The real action is being saved for the Autumn Budget.

What I’m watching for, and hoping for, is any signal on digital assets and the UK’s crypto framework. It’s unlikely be on the agenda, but it should be. The FCA’s evolving regulatory posture is moving faster than Treasury rhetoric, and without explicit government backing, the UK risks losing ground to jurisdictions that are actively courting Web3 founders and capital.”

 

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