UK Unemployment Holds At 5.2%, But Can We Trust ONS’ Jobs Data?

The newest labour market release from the Office for National Statistics arrives at a delicate time for the economy. Unemployment is 5.2%. Vacancies are 721,000, down 0.8% on the previous period. Regular pay is up 3.8%, total pay 3.9%, and real earnings are at 0.4%.

Michael Stull, Managing Director of ManpowerGroup UK, said, “Today’s ONS release shows unemployment at 5.2%, suggesting caution continues to dominate the labour market. Vacancies at 721,000 (down 0.8%) highlight that hiring remains conservatively balanced. Meanwhile wage growth at 3.8% for regular pay and 3.9% for total pay, with real earnings at 0.4%, points to a labour market where wage inflation is not reducing fast enough to provide relief for employers. Overall, the labour market is stable, yet fragile.”

That description really captures the tension in the numbers. Employers are hiring carefully. Pay packets are rising in cash terms, though real earnings at 0.4% leave households with only a small cushion after inflation.

How Does This Relate To Businesses’ Experiences?

Stull also said the official data feels calmer than what many businesses are experiencing day to day. He said, “Having said this, the data looks steadier than the present-day reality that businesses are facing. The start of 2026 brought a cautious optimism, both in terms of conversations with clients and the placements being made.

“This feeling was echoed in our MEOS Q2 2026 research – with 27% of businesses forecasting hiring and 47% citing expansion into new areas of growth. However, this optimism has been thwarted by recent global events placing higher expectations on inflation and general uncertainty for businesses. In the immediacy, this will cool hiring.”

If hiring slows again, that 5.2% unemployment rate could edge higher in the months ahead.

What Happened Last Year And Why Is This Relevant Here?

The ONS produces the data that guides government decisions, informs business strategy and feeds directly into rate decisions at the Bank of England. When trust in that data is shaken, the consequences travel through the economy.

In October 2023, the ONS delayed and then suspended its standard labour market bulletin based on the Labour Force Survey after response rates dropped to 14.6% in mid 2023, compared with 47.9% a decade earlier. Pandemic lockdowns forced a move from face to face interviews to phone calls, and participation never recovered to previous levels.

The ONS published alternative estimates using experimental sources, though many questioned their reliability. In May 2024, the chief economist at the Bank of England wrote that changes to the Labour Force Survey had not led to an improvement and that it remained uncertain whether the credibility of the survey would improve. In December 2024, the ONS acknowledged that a redesigned survey might not be ready until 2027.

Problems also affected wealth data. In June 2025, the Office for Statistics Regulation suspended the accredited status of the Wealth and Assets Survey after concluding it was no longer of sufficient value or quality to meet users’ needs. The Institute for Fiscal Studies later said methodological changes to that survey resulted in a £2.3 trillion fall in measured pension wealth for 2018 to 2020, describing that outcome as highly implausible.

Official statistics are the foundation of economic decision making. When unemployment is 5.2% and real earnings are 0.4%, policymakers, businesses and households need data they can trust. Without that, decisions become harder and public trust goes down.