We’ve collected industry expert predictions on trends that will shape cybersecurity in 2024.
There’s a lot to reflect on how cybersecurity has changed this year, and what there is to be excited about as we enter 2024.
We asked a panel of industry experts to give their predictions on what trends they think will shape cybersecurity next year…
- Connie Stack – CEO at Next DLP
- Guy Bauman – CMO & Co-Founder of IronVest
- Darren Anstee – Chief Technology Officer for Security at NETSCOUT
- Gary Cox – Technical Director for Western Europe at Infoblox
- Ameya Talwalkar – CEO and Founder of Cequence Security
- Stephen Henry – Cloud and Infrastructure Engineer at Cybersecurity Specialist OryxAlign
- Graham Russell – Director of Market Intelligence at Own Company
- Si West – Director of Customer Engagement at Cyber Security Provider Resilience
- Casey Ellis – Founder and Chief Strategy Officer at Bugcrowd
- Martin Riley – Director of Managed Security Services, Bridewell
- Jamal Elmellas – Chief Operating Officer at Focus-on-Security
- Dirk Schrader – Field CISO EMEA and VP of Security Research at Netwrix
- John Hernandez – President & GM, Quest Software
- Paul Holland – CEO at Beyond Encryption
- Tom Gorup – VP of Security Services at Edgio
- Simon Hodgkinson – Former BP CISO and Strategic Adviser to Semperis
- Aaron Kiemele – CISO at
- Andy Patel – Senior Researcher at WithSecure
- Corey Nachreiner – Chief Security Officer at WatchGuard Technologies
- Matt Watts – Chief Evangelist at NetApp on Cybersecurity
Connie Stack, CEO at Next DLP
Guy Bauman, CMO and Co-Founder of IronVest
“Consumers will continue to see a surge in card-not-present (CNP) fraud: Research found that card-not-present fraud would make up 73% of all card payment fraud this year. Expect this trend to continue into 2024 as the dominant way of scamming consumers, especially with online shopping.
“This kind of fraud occurs without a scammer needing your physical card to steal your money. Instead, all they need to get their hands on is your credit card number, personal identifying information (PII), such as your name or address, or the three-digit security code on the back.
“As e-commerce continues to develop into a multi-trillion-dollar industry, consumers need to be increasingly weary of not just protecting their physical cards, but their entire digital trail.
“Masking” as a security feature will continue to see more mass adoption: Headed into 2024, consumers are going to continue to wise up to the fact that shopping online is similar to playing roulette – you never actually know if your information is safe.
“For this reason, they will continue to adopt the use of masked or virtual cards to circumvent handing over their actual card information while transacting online.
“The critical advantage of a virtual card is that it is untraceable to your original information and single-use – meaning consumers maintain anonymity and limit their exposure to fraud to a single transaction. When it comes to data breaches and total account drains, this simple security measure can be the only tool that stands between you and life-changing fraud.
“Not only this, masking can also be applied to emails and phone numbers, helping to keep consumers’ most precious information under lock and key.
The desire for consumers to keep a self-sovereign identity will prevail: It’s no secret that consumer trust in ‘big tech’ has been in a freefall. They’re tired of having to compromise their personal data to engage with the applications and the platforms they love and for good reason – daily data breaches aren’t confidence-building.
“Headed into 2024, we will continue to see a shift in consumer demand towards the right to a self-sovereign identity, or the belief that individuals alone should have access and control of their own information.”
Darren Anstee, Chief Technology Officer for Security at NETSCOUT
“In the upcoming year, there is expected to be a tightening of cybersecurity budgets amongst customers, both for service providers and enterprises. This is likely to focus these organisations on investing in cybersecurity solutions capable of addressing multiple use cases, to create value across network and security operations. This indicates that businesses are placing greater importance on sharing actionable information internally and externally.
“Enterprises and service providers are also likely to examine how they can utilise threat intelligence, not only to block and defend themselves from cyberattacks but also to educate and inform operationally. Organisations will begin to see the value threat information has in helping them to adequately prepare for real-world cyber threats.
“What’s more, distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks are set to continue evolving, with attack vectors, methodologies, and the tools utilised by bad actors becoming progressively more complex and sophisticated.
“As DDoS attacks become increasingly advanced, the operational overhead for organisations defending multiple potential targets may also increase. This is especially true as some cybercriminals target numerous organisations in parallel, hoping that at least one fails for publicity purposes. Nevertheless, the increased workload isn’t a guarantee, with more use of threat intelligence and self-adapting solutions likely countering this throughout 2024.”
Gary Cox, Technical Director for Western Europe at Infoblox
“As the digital world continues to evolve, the threat of ‘lookalike’ domains in phishing attacks has taken a sinister turn. No longer the clumsy attempts of the past, these sophisticated schemes now leverage AI to create countless domains that are visually indistinguishable from legitimate ones to deceive users. Attackers use techniques like homographs, typosquats, and combosquats, exploiting the smallest oversights in our digital interactions.
It’s clear that basic awareness isn’t enough; the sophistication of lookalike domains demands a robust, proactive response. By integrating real-time DNS data and threat intelligence into their cybersecurity arsenal, businesses are finding that not only can they detect these threats, but they can actively dismantle them, safeguarding their brand reputation and preserving consumer trust.”
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Ameya Talwalkar, CEO and Founder of Cequence Security
“Generative AI is a dual-use technology with the potential to usher humanity forward or, if mismanaged, regress our advancements or even push us toward potential extinction. APIs, which drive the integrations between systems, software, and data points, are pivotal in realising the potential of AI in a secure, protected manner. This is also true when it comes to AI’s application in cyber defences.
“In 2024, organisations will recognise that secure data sharing is essential to building a strong, resilient AI-powered future. While AI is undoubtedly a testament to human ingenuity and potential, its safe and ethical application is imperative. It’s not merely about acquiring AI tools; it’s the responsibility and accountability of secure integration, primarily when facilitated through APIs.
“In the wake of the SEC’s charges against the SolarWinds CISO for allegedly misleading investors about cybersecurity practices, the role of the CISO is poised to undergo a significant transformation, evolving beyond a purely technical position into a more comprehensive Chief Risk Officer role.
“As cyber risk increasingly permeates the broader business landscape, CISOs are set to assume a more prominent role in shaping company strategy and decision-making. This shift will necessitate a broader skillset, encompassing technical expertise and a deep understanding of business operations, regulatory compliance, and risk management.
“In 2024, CISOs will be expected to actively participate in the company’s overall business strategy, providing valuable insights on risk mitigation and cybersecurity implications. Their expertise will be crucial in guiding the executive team and board of directors as they navigate the ever-evolving cybersecurity landscape, ensuring informed decisions that safeguard the company’s reputation, assets, and future.”
Stephen Henry, Cloud and Infrastructure Engineer at Cybersecurity Specialist OryxAlign
“In 2024, we will see an increase in AI voice deepfakes. These voice scams range from bots approximating accents and responding intelligently, to fully-fledged voice-spoofing, utilising actual voice samples.
“In banking, for example, voice scams pose threats such as identity theft for taking control of a customer’s account or using their voice for payment fraud. There isn’t a foolproof solution for preventing voice scams as they often involve data breaches to access personal details first.
“With the surge in remote and hybrid work models, physical verification of callers becomes impractical. This situation heightens the risk of falling prey to requests such as fund transfers or purchases without a means of authenticating the caller’s identity.
“Cybersecurity measures play a crucial role in preventing criminals from establishing the groundwork for subsequent voice attacks. However, unlike traditional antivirus programs, which focus on individual devices, emerging systems like extended detection and response (XDR) platforms leverage AI and machine learning to monitor network behaviours comprehensively. These platforms automatically respond to threats and escalate critical issues for human review.
“While AI cybersecurity tools can’t guarantee 100 per cent prevention, they excel in tracking breached systems, learning attack paths, and preventing similar attacks at speed and scale. Cybercriminals only need one successful attempt, whereas cybersecurity teams must thwart attacks consistently.”
Graham Russell, Director of Market Intelligence at Own Company
“1 – More organisations will embrace the ongoing adoption of cloud and SaaS. The SaaS revolution is turning industries into tech playgrounds: from healthcare to finance, the widespread embrace of Software as a Service application has been a game-changer. But while SaaS may already seem ubiquitous, in reality, many organisations have been slow to embrace it. 2024 is the year they will likely catch on. And with this increased adoption comes a greater need for data protection and cybersecurity measures.
“2 – AI adoption will drive data breaches. As the adoption of AI continues to skyrocket, the risk of data breaches increases. This inevitable intersection of AI and data breaches is set to redefine the data protection and cybersecurity landscape in the near future. The silver lining? It will propel a renewed and intensified focus on data security issues. With each headline-grabbing breach, businesses are becoming increasingly vigilant about the safety of their business data.
“3 – AI adoption will prompt a greater focus on data hygiene. AI’s voracious appetite for high-quality, accurate data makes the concept of data cleanliness a critical factor in unleashing the true potential of AI applications. In response to this need for impeccable data, a notable trend is the strategic use of backup files. Traditionally seen as a safety net for data recovery, backup files are now being leveraged as a valuable resource for training and refining AI and machine learning models.
“4 – Organisations will pivot to a ‘platform of choice’ at the core of their tech stacks. In 2024, organisations will strategically opt for a ‘platform of choice’ that will serve as the centre of their tech stack. This shift will help businesses move away from the fragmented approach of using multiple vendors and applications, towards a more streamlined and integrated tech ecosystem.”
Si West, Director of Customer Engagement at Cyber Security Provider Resilience
“Moving into 2024, the threat of cyberattacks to UK organisations will rise significantly with the advent of artificial intelligence, as adversaries increasingly leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) to accelerate the time to ransom. Identity providers will also continue to be targeted, with modern defensive postures being able to bypass controls like multi-factor authentication while threat actors will continue to target third-party vendors to scale their attacks. In fact, our claims data has shown a significant increase in this activity.
2023 has seen the growth of state-backed cyber criminals, who we anticipate will continue to leverage zero-day vulnerabilities given the increase in zero-day attacks stemming from sophisticated state-backed campaigns in the last six months. SaaS businesses should also be increasingly mindful of data privacy violations arising from the insecure deployment of LLMs in SaaS-specific products. This is particularly important given the rush in companies to deploy LLMs despite growing concerns about adversarial attacks that could cause these models to inadvertently share sensitive data.
Perhaps the most significant target for malicious actions in 2024 will be the politically motivated disinformation campaigns in the US and UK elections, compromising both political candidates and the respective election processes. This could drive follow-on hacktivist or physical attacks against state institutions for which both countries should be prepared”
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Casey Ellis, Founder and Chief Strategy Officer at Bugcrowd
“The growing conflicts between Israel and Hamas and Russia and Ukraine will continue in 2024, leading to new risks from global threat actors. This will require preparedness on both sides for new asymmetric threats. Defenders don’t know how to model these threats because they are used to dealing with ransom attacks, so they are not sure what these guys are here for.
“We should expect to see different groups popping up in Israel-Hamas like in Ukraine, with these ad hoc asymmetric fighting forces popping up on both sides of Israel and Hamas. Once we get to the Molotov cocktail environment, that is where the chaos part comes in, and now those conflicts are turning into fodder for information warfare ahead of the U.S. election.
“There is no shortage of things to be upset about on all sides. This is a volatile, noisy, and fluid environment that is getting a lot of people around the world concerned and upset. And if those threat groups do act, their direct actions will be difficult to predict. We need to listen to outside views with a diverse range of opinions, and that is the place where the crowd can help. We should insert the crowdsourced hacker mindset into this discussion to show how to prepare for that sort of chaos when the hackers do try to monkey with IT systems.
“The availability of ChatGPT and generative AI tools have lowered the bar for creating sophisticated attacks. In the past, knowledge was a barrier to entry for the attackers to get big outcomes. Now gen AI has given them access to a lot of new tools and it has broadened the potential threat group.
“In using AI for defence, the challenge comes because prioritization is usually defined by the business leaders, not by the security practitioners. What we security folks feel is most urgent sometimes does not align with the company priorities, which creates a risk to the organization. Seen through that lens, our work around AI is to surface insights from the overall data set as it relates to risk. A vulnerability on its own is not good, but a vulnerability plus a real threat now makes it urgent – it’s like a bomb that hasn’t gone off.”
Martin Riley, Director of Managed Security Services at Bridewell
“Looking ahead to 2024, we can see how emerging technology tools, sophisticated attack methods and the eruption of AI are transforming how criminals organise and operate, but also how legitimate organisations can defend themselves. To strengthen their security posture at a time of great change, organisations must avoid dependence on technology as the sole answer.
“They must acquire greater visibility and threat intelligence and develop their processes and technologies to ensure they are leveraging sophisticated threat-informed managed detection and response (MDR) and extended detection and response (XDR) capabilities.”
Jamal Elmellas, Chief Operating Officer at Focus-on-Security
“1. Skills shortages will begin to be felt due to them being cumulative.
“There is an annual shortfall of 11,200 cybersecurity employees, according to UK Government research, and this is cumulative which means year-on-year the shortage is intensifying. Moreover, an increase in demand for cyber roles of 30% and growth in employment of 10% over the course of 2022 indicates demand is also on the up.
“In 2024, the shortages of skilled cybersecurity employees will start to bite and businesses will no longer be able to keep doing what they have been doing and recruit from the same small pool of talent. Recruitment strategies will have to become more creative in a bid to identify raw talent if security teams don’t want to be left short-staffed.
“2. Emergence of more low-cost or free training schemes to boost intake.
“Industry bodies have already taken proactive action with the likes of (ISC)2 offering a million free entry-level certification courses and exams while in the US a number of universities have launched free online courses.
“Advances in the provision of courses online mean this is now a viable low-cost alternative. So next year we can expect to see more subsidised or free training in a bid to attract more people into the sector or to upskill professionals to fill those roles that are in high demand.
“3. A brain drain as more senior execs leave the field due to stress and burnout.
” Stress levels continue to be high with incidents and alert levels on the rise which means we are on track to realise Gartner’s prediction of 50% of cybersecurity leaders changing jobs and 25% leaving by 2025. Thus far that exodus has been tempered by the cost of living crisis but as inflation stabilises and confidence returns there will be an exodus at the top. Given the years of experience needed to fill these roles, this could seriously destabilise security teams and stall security projects.
“4. Crackdown on AI in recruitment.
“AI has long been a part of recruitment but the emergence of Generative AI Large Learning Models (LLMs) is now seeing the technology used by candidates too. AI apps are providing candidates with ready-crafted replies during interviews, for example. Next year we can expect to see the industry self-regulate with specific clauses in agreements against AI-generated CVs and AI-lead interviews.
“Use of AI technologies such as an ATS (Application Tracking System) and/or Recruitment Management System (RMS) is also now widely regarded as problematic because it creates a hidden workforce, exacerbating the skills shortage. These systems are used by 58% of UK businesses, with more than 90% of employers using their RMS to initially filter or rank potential middle-skills (94%) and high-skills (92%) candidates, according to the ‘Hidden workers: untapped talent’ report from Harvard Business School.
“Used to filter through CVs and applications, the technology has been criticised for excluding applicants that have been out of the workforce or unconventionally trained but strong candidates that don’t use key search terms. Candidates have tried to bait the system using whitefonting in the past because it’s viewed as such an obstacle. In 2024, we’ll see a move away from this technology towards more intuitive forms of filtering using the natural language processing (NLP) associated with Generative AI. This will enable recruiters to put forward candidates that have the aptitude if not the qualifications needed for specific roles.
“5. Cybersecurity budgets will increase due to skills shortages.
“Spend on cybersecurity will go up in 2024 as organisations seek to compete for talent and invest in automated technologies to help lighten the workload of the security team. Investment will be buoyed by inflation stabilising and growth returning to the market. However, as roles become augmented by AI and automation, we can also expect to see remits change. There’s liable to be some consolidation in roles with the cybersecurity professional becoming responsible for more activities that require human intuition or analysis.”
Dirk Schrader, Field CISO EMEA and VP of Security Research at Netwrix
“Cyber insurance requirements will tighten. With successful cyberattacks leading to increasing payouts, insurers will require more organisations to have strong security measures in place to qualify for a policy or to reduce premiums. Common requirements today include multifactor authentication (MFA), patch management and regular security training for business users. In 2024, identity and access management (IAM) is likely to join that list, especially for the enterprise sector.
“What’s more, we expect insurers to partner with managed service providers (MSPs) to help ensure a minimum level of security at small and midsize companies.
“AI tools will make it easy for cybercriminals to glean the details they need. AI will enable threat actors to swiftly locate personal details required for convincing phishing emails and to mine databases of stolen credentials to launch effective password-based attacks. To reduce risk, organisations must require strong, unique passwords, tightly control privileged access, and invest in identity threat detection and response (ITDR) solutions.
“Phishing emails will be harder to spot and expand in non-English-speaking countries. In the past, phishing emails were riddled with grammatical errors and typos, and were usually in English.
“In 2024, however, AI tools will make it much easier for attackers to craft convincing emails in any language. To fight back, organisations need to update their phishing training and make it easy for users to report suspicious messages. IT teams in non-English speaking regions also need to warn users about the growing likelihood of getting malicious emails in their native language.”
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John Hernandez, President & GM at Quest Software
“As we look ahead to 2024, it’s clear that the cybersecurity landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by a significant shortage of cybersecurity talent and the retirement of professionals well-versed in “legacy” technologies like Active Directory – both of which create a concerning lack of visibility into IT environments and could lead to easily exploited vulnerabilities.
“With this increasing risk, CISOs, tech leaders and recruiters will finally be motivated to take more drastic action to bridge the skills gap in the cybersecurity sector, investing in enhanced training programs and implementing cutting-edge tools that provide better visibility and make it easier for security professionals to manage and rectify misconfigurations promptly.
“The future of cybersecurity hinges on our ability to upskill our workforce and equip them with the knowledge and tools needed to protect our digital assets effectively.
“However, It’s not just the responsibility of organizations and cybersecurity professionals; software vendors must also play a crucial role in alleviating the security skills gap. By proactively addressing security concerns at the source of their supply chain and strengthening the jobs pipeline, software vendors and enterprises alike can mitigate this risk and close the gaps.”
Paul Holland, CEO at Beyond Encryption
“The threat landscape is constantly evolving, and with AI becoming more accessible to the public, organisations need to be consistently vigilant and adopt more advanced security measures in order to mitigate these attacks.
“Cybercriminals are increasingly leveraging AI to engage in voice and video-generated fraud. Using AI, threat actors can create ‘deep fakes’, which are realistic audio or video recordings that impersonate trusted individuals or authorities. Through recent developments, these deep fakes can be created using just a three-second snippet of audio, with AI also being used to analyse an individual’s communication patterns and launch hyper-personalised attacks.
“With the emergence of these sophisticated digital attacks, businesses must place a reinforced cybersecurity strategy that protects end users at the top of their agenda in 2024. A multi-faceted approach is required here, with enhanced education of end users and consumers also of paramount importance in order to combat these enhanced cyber-attacks. It is clear that while the rapid development of AI has brought great innovation into the tech sector, it has also introduced enhanced threats.
“To ensure that organisations are on top of current threats, while also being mindful of future risk, implementing robust safeguarding measures now will be vital.”
Tom Gorup, VP of Security Services at Edgio
“Attackers could pose as a business’s executive to release false statements about a data breach, support political parties or an activist group. This could have significant financial implications, impacting stock and an organisation’s reputation
“It’s now become personal. The rise of virtual work tools has meant that more attackers can pose as employees or executives, increasing the risks of employees sending payments, gifts cards, or PII to attackers
“Organisations must ensure they have an official and consistent means of sharing information with customers and partners, educate employees and executives on standard security practices, introduce additional forms of validation, and invest in services that monitor risks.”
Simon Hodgkinson, former BP CISO and Strategic Adviser to Semperis
“We have experienced a marked increase in geopolitical tension globally and this will likely escalate into the cyberspace. As an example, in the Israel-Hamas war, Semperis’ researchers and incident responders have seen a variety of malicious cyberattacks being carried out in conjunction with the on-ground battle.
“Nation states could use cyberattacks to supplement on-the-ground warfare, by disrupting critical infrastructures or finance systems. Where economic sanctions are in place, nations and organisations may turn to cyber to fund their activities – attacking businesses that will pay ransoms or stealing cryptocurrencies.
“With several key political decisions to be made in 2024, we may also see state-sponsored attacks that aim to disrupt upcoming elections and seed misinformation, creating havoc in the general population. This increase in activity will have multiple knock-down effects on companies, governments and individuals across the world.”
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Aaron Kiemele, CISO at
“In 2024, cybersecurity teams will need to be extra vigilant about nation-state threats. Major elections taking place across the world as well as the continued conflict in Ukraine and Israel will drive increased cyberattacks from state-sponsored groups.
“Advanced persistent threat (APT) groups linked to foreign governments will expand their targets beyond large organisations in critical infrastructure or sensitive industries. Smaller businesses in the supply chain or partner ecosystem will increasingly be attacked as vectors to the true targets.
“Collaboration, management, and cloud tools used by smaller suppliers will be attractive targets for nation-state actors. These tools hold sensitive data and access that could provide an easy pathway for lateral movement towards a larger primary target.
“Organisations of all sizes will need to ensure they are not the weak link that allows adversaries access to their partners and customers. Cybersecurity teams should expand their protection, detection, and response capabilities with nation-state campaigns in mind. Partnering closely with governments and information-sharing organisations will also be key to identify and defend against threats early.
“Ultimately, the APT landscape in 2024 will be highly complex. But with robust preparation and cooperation, organisations can develop appropriate resilience against even significant nation-state capabilities.”
Andy Patel, Senior Researcher at WithSecure
“AI will be used to create disinformation and influence operations in the runup to the high-profile elections of 2024. This will include synthetic written, spoken, and potentially even image or video content. Disinformation is going to be incredibly effective now that social networks have scaled back or completely removed their moderation and verification efforts. Social media will become even more of a cesspool of AI and human-created garbage.
“The cybercriminal ecosystem has become compartmentalised into a multitude of service offerings such as access brokers, malware writers, spam campaign services, and so on. On the disinformation front, there are many companies that pose as PR or marketing outfits, but who provide disinformation and influence operations as services.
“Where relevant, cybercriminals and other bad actors will turn to AI for the sake of efficiency. They will use generative models to create phishing content, social media content, deepfakes, and synthetic images and videos. The creation of such content requires expertise in prompt engineering – knowing which inputs generate the most convincing outputs. Will prompt engineering become a service offering? Perhaps.”
Corey Nachreiner, Chief Security Officer at WatchGuard Technologies
“Prompt Engineering Tricks Large Language Models (LLMs) – Companies and individuals are experimenting with LLMs to increase operational efficiency. But threat actors are learning how to exploit LLMs for their own malicious purposes as well. During 2024, the WatchGuard Threat Lab predicts that a smart prompt engineer ‒ whether a criminal attacker or researcher ‒ will crack the code and manipulate an LLM into leaking private data.
“MSPs Double Down on Security Services Via Automated Platforms – With approximately 3.4 million open cybersecurity jobs, and fierce competition for the talent that is available, more small- to midsized- companies will turn to trusted managed service and security service providers, known as MSPs and MSSPs, to protect them in 2024. To accommodate growing demand and scarce staffing resources, MSPs and MSSPs will double down on unified security platforms with heavy automation using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML).
“AI Spear Phishing Tool Sales Boom on the Dark Web – Cybercriminals can already buy tools on the underground that send spam email, automatically craft convincing texts, and scrape the Internet and social media for a particular target’s information and connections, but a lot of these tools are still manual and require attackers to target one user or group at a time. Well-formatted procedural tasks like these are perfect for automation via artificial intelligence and machine learning – making it likely that AI-powered tools will emerge as best sellers on the dark web in 2024. “
Matt Watts, Chief Evangelist at NetApp on Cybersecurity
“In the face of persistent cybersecurity threats from bad actors that run the gamut from insiders to cybercriminal gangs and nation states, organizations need a renewed focus on how they recover from cyberattacks as preventing them becomes rarer.
“It is an ongoing challenge to prevent bad actors from accessing, stealing, or tampering with IT environments and critical assets like customer data and intellectual property. In fact, experts predict that by 2031 there will be a ransomware attack every 2 seconds, costing victims $265 billion annually. Because of this, 87 per cent of C-suite and board-level executives view ransomware protection as a high, or top, priority in their organization according to NetApp’s 2023 Data Complexity Report.
“The biggest threat to a business in the wake of a cyberattack is not the theft of data, but the time and resources spent repairing systems and restoring data to resume normal operations. To protect their most critical assets and ensure business continuity, we’ll see increased investment in IT security to ensure IT systems are secure by design and reduce business disruption in the face of a cyberattack. IT systems that have features like immutable data backups will help mitigate disruption while cyber incidents are investigated.”
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