The IMF Says That AI Will Cut Up To 40% Of Jobs

Artificial Intelligence is getting closer and closer towards changing the global economy, with opportunities and threats alike. Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the IMF, stresses the importance of carefully balancing policies to ensure AI complements humanity, while addressing the risk of job loss, and growing inequalities.

Global Workforce Exposure to AI

The IMF’s recent analysis reveals that AI exposure affects nearly 40% of jobs worldwide. Advanced economies are more vulnerable to disruptions compared to emerging markets and developing economies. Approximately 60% of jobs in advanced economies may bear the brunt of AI impact. However, the analysis acknowledges the potential for AI to complement human work, boosting productivity in about half of the affected jobs.

In simple terms, AI’s influence is substantial, touching a significant portion of the global job market. Advanced economies, particularly, face a higher risk of job impact, emphasising the need for strategic policies to navigate these changes.

Inequality Concerns

AI’s influence on income and wealth inequality within countries is a significant concern. There’s a possibility of polarisation within income brackets, with AI benefiting workers who can harness its capabilities, while others lag behind.

The IMF warns that AI may exacerbate overall inequality globally, emphasising the importance of proactive policymaking to mitigate social tensions.

Age and Job Displacement

Georgieva points out that older workers may face challenges adapting to AI-driven changes, while younger workers may find it easier to exploit opportunities. The potential age-based disparities in AI’s impact on the workforce raise important considerations for policymakers seeking an inclusive transition.
 

Regional Variances

In low-income countries, where AI exposure is expected to be around 26%, and emerging markets at 40%, the immediate disruptions from AI are fewer. However, the lack of infrastructure and skilled workforces in these regions poses a risk of widening global inequality.

Policymakers must focus on helping low-income countries harness AI’s benefits by investing in digital infrastructure and developing a digitally competent workforce.

Measuring Readiness

To guide countries in crafting effective policies, the IMF has developed an AI Preparedness Index. This index evaluates factors such as digital infrastructure, human capital policies, innovation and economic integration, and regulation and ethics.

Wealthier economies, including advanced and some emerging markets like Singapore, the United States, and Denmark, tend to score higher on the index.

Policy Priorities for Advanced and Emerging Economies

The IMF recommends that advanced economies prioritise AI innovation and integration while developing robust regulatory frameworks.

This approach actively makes sure there are safety and responsibility in AI , to hold up the preservation of public trust.

Social Safety Nets and Retraining Programmes

The global integrating of AI calls for countries to apply various social safety nets and implement retraining programmes. Georgieva speaks on why it is important to concentrate efforts on aiding countries to swiftly make use of the opportunities presented by AI, guaranteeing an inclusive transition and averting a further deepening of global inequality.

Davos Agenda: AI in the Limelight

Policymakers, business leaders, and experts at the World Economic Forum in Davos anticipate discussions on strategies to confront the the impact of AI on jobs, as well as the benefits.

All in all, Kristalina Georgieva urges countries to actively embrace the inevitable AI era, recognising the difficulties it comes with, while also acknowledging some of its opportunities for everyone.